王建民的關鍵一年...A Pivotal Season for Chien-Ming Wang

April 01, 2009


紐約郵報的知名運動專欄作家Joel Sherman

曾在一個多禮拜前針對小王成為自由球員後的動向問題做出討論

這篇最後結論傾向於洋基球團屆時應該會拿小王作為交易籌碼

來換取長遠而言對洋基更具價值的潛力新秀、或是實力已被公認的"正統"王牌投手



"The Yankee logic would be simple: If they do not think they can go long-term with Wang then would they be better off letting him pitch for them through 2010 or to use him to potentially fill another area of need via trade? "



這篇文章馬上就引發了洋基球迷間的熱烈討論

Joel Sherman甚至還在幾天後再發表了一篇文章來回應球迷對他首篇文章部分內容的質疑

(主要是針對他在前文中將小王成為自由球員的時間誤植為2010年球季結束後)

或許小王實在是個不容易找到對照組的投手

以致於球迷、球評甚至球團本身都仍在摸索他的定位和發展性

小王究竟是不是洋基可以仰賴的王牌投手?小王的投球威力究竟會不會隨著年紀漸大而急遽下滑?

小王這種缺乏三振能力、看似過度仰賴單一球種的投手在大聯盟中究竟有多久賞味期?

究竟該不該趁著小王帳面成績優異時把他拿來作為交易籌碼?

這類型的討論其實在許多洋基球迷討論區中都三不五時會被提出

但是過去幾年在我印象中尚未出現規模可以比擬這次由Joel Sherman所引發的討論熱潮

Joel Sherman的原文或是針對該文章做出回應的評論

都在洋基球迷的轉貼和分享過程中讓更多球迷有機會加入他們本身對於文章的回應

這對我來說甚至是比閱讀文章本身更具樂趣的經驗



在洋基球迷間頗具盛名的部落客Benjamin Kabak

也在3/25針對Joel Sherman的文章做出了回應

在其和另外兩位同好共筆的洋基部落格River Ave. Blues

發表了一篇名為 "A Pivotal Season for Chien-Ming Wang  王建民的關鍵一年" 的文章

該文本身頗具可讀性 (至少可以用作和Joel Sherman的文章平衡論點之用)

文章下方的球迷回應更是提出了許多精闢有趣的論點

或許可被視為美國當地洋基球迷對於小王究竟有何評價的風向球







原文連結: A Pivotal Season for Chien-Ming Wang



A Pivotal Season for Chien-Ming Wang



by BENJAMIN KABAK / River Ave. Blues



In six days, Chien-Ming Wang, the erstwhile ace of the Yankee staff now relegated to the two spot behind CC Sabathia, will turn 29. In pitching years, he is hitting his prime, and for the Yankees and Wang, 2009 will be a pivotal year.



For the better part of four years, Wang has been a mainstay in the Yankee rotation. He has made 95 starts since May of 2005 and has gone a remarkable 54-20 with a 3.79 ERA. What makes his 117 ERA+ even more outstanding are his admittedly terrible peripherals. For his career, Wang has a 4.02 K/9 IP and a 1.54 K/BB ratio. Pitchers with those key numbers generally don’t hold their opponents to a .265/.320/.365.



Wang does this, of course, by being an extreme groundball pitcher. He sports a career 1.58 GB/FB ratio and has induced 94 double plays over his four years in the Bigs. His sinker is so good that it confounds the statistically-minded experts and the BP PECOTA system who see his low K rates and worry.



In New York, Wang is adored by the fans and treated like an ace, but the Yankees have seemingly never quite embraced him as such. In a recent blog post, Joel Sherman voices some Wang-related speculation, and in doing so, he brings up a few good points:




Wang is going to be a free agent after the 2010 season so to keep him the Yankees are going to have to pay him elite dollars over a long-term to stay: He will likely have a case that he should be paid commensurate with the five years at $82.5 million bestowed A.J. Burnett. And the Yanks, internally, are not positive about going to such extents with Wang. He has pitched four seasons in the majors and two have been interrupted by injury. They wonder how a pitcher who does not strike out batters will age as he loses some bite on his sinking fastball, especially since he has been sketchy in developing the rest of his repertoire. And he would begin a new contract in 2011 at age 31, so you almost certainly are buying declining years.



Because of all of this, the Yankees have weighed trade scenarios in the past involving Wang and, I suspect, they will continue to at least listen, especially if they believe that Hughes is capable of being, at minimum, a cost-effective, mid-rotation starter. The Yankee logic would be simple: If they do not think they can go long-term with Wang then would they be better off letting him pitch for them through 2010 or to use him to potentially fill another area of need via trade?




In Sherman’s view, the Wang scenario hinges on Phil Hughes. If the Yanks feel Hughes can handle Major League hitters to the extent we believe he can, the team may be willing to shop Wang for the right price.



Now, Sherman’s argument breaks down in a few places. Wang’s 2008 injury wasn’t pitching-related; rather, it was some baserunning fluke. Sherman also speculates that the Yanks could try to trade for Roy Halladay. If they don’t want to pay Wang for his decline phase, why would the team want Halladay, a pitcher three years older than the Yanks’ right-hander?



But Sherman’s points about Wang’s repertoire carry some weight. Chien-Ming Wang is no longer considered young, and at this point, he should have mastered the rest of his pitches. Yet, that non-sinker out-pitch has continued to elude him. Last year, Wang showed some strike-out promise. His K/9 IP was up around 5.12 before his baserunning disaster struck. Take out his nine-strike out game against the Indians, though, and that figure settls in at 4.60.



Wang’s stuff has often been compared to the heavy, hard sinker Kevin Brown sported in his younger days. By age 27, though, Brown had mastered the strike out. If Wang is to emerge as a true long-term option for the Yanks, he may need to take that big step this year.



In the end, though, I come out with Sherman: The Yanks will sign Wang. Even if he sticks around as a two, three or four starter behind some combination of Sabathia, Joba, Hughes or Burnett, a team can never have too much pitching.












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2 意見

  1. shiroij8:38 AM

    我想美國人終究還是比較看好 strike out pitchers.
    even Halladay 是一個容易受傷的選手, 屆時也年紀大,
    謠言也說洋基可能用王建民交易他

    版主回覆:(04/10/2009 04:57:41 PM)


    是啊 Blue Jays方面不用Halladay作為交易籌碼的決定
    似乎因為球團財務狀況不佳而有所動搖...

    接下來究竟會發生什麼事
    大家都等著瞧囉

    ReplyDelete
  2. cpyskingdom2:23 AM

    我到是希望

    小王被交易到內野防守超強的隊

    一想到洋基的游擊.......

    ReplyDelete

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