We're Growing Right to Hell

December 13, 2006


一向被視為是現代大都會發展的經典範例

紐約靠著其完善的大眾交通系統, 城市基礎建設以及其得天獨厚的地理位置

佔據世界首都的位置長達數十年之久...也持續地吸引大量人口遷入這個充滿魅力的城市

不過昨天由市長Bloomberg所提出的New York 2030報告

卻試圖在警告紐約客這個一度偉大的城市所將面臨的迫切危機...



在2030年, 紐約市每日的rush hour將長達12小時...

目前認定從早上7點到9點, 下午4點到6點的rush hour定義...將不再適用



在2030年, 紐約市的sewer infrastructure將無法負荷大量成長的人口數

雖然過去15年來紐約市都不斷地進行sewer infrastructure的改善計畫

但是若以這樣的速度推算...要完成sewer infrastructure的全面升級以因應2030年的需求

還得耗費500年的時間...



在5年之內, 紐約市的電力使用需求就將超越其供應量

要是不對現有供電基礎建設做出改善的話

到了2030年...紐約市將短缺至少1,500 megawatts的電力



..........



面對這些將嚴重影響紐約是否能繼續雄距世界首都地位的威脅

Bloomberg和他的團隊將在近日內正式發表其所提案的因應策略

而報告書中的部份內容...則在Bloomberg昨天假Queens Museum of Art進行的演講中首次揭露







We're Growing Right to Hell

Bloomy's Vision of 2030 Foresees Nightmare of Crowding & Crumbling



By DAVID SEIFMAN

Published : December 13, 2006 / New York Post




The city must plan today for explosive growth or face unthinkable 12-hour rush hours and a crumbling infrastructure incapable of sustaining a million more residents by 2030, Mayor Bloomberg warned yesterday.



In what was billed as a "major" speech, the mayor offered a dark vision of where the city is headed over the next quarter-century if action isn't taken as he sketched the severe challenges awaiting New York and such world cities as London and Beijing.



"By 2030, our population will reach more than 9 million - the equivalent of adding populations of Boston and Miami to the five boroughs," Bloomberg told an invited audience of more than 200 in a multimedia presentation at the Queens Museum of Art.



"The result is a surge that is taking our population to new heights and our city into uncharted waters."



To prepare for such "undreamed of levels" of density, the mayor said the aging city has to upgrade almost every structure in sight - from streets to playgrounds to power plants to mass transit.



"Previous generations imagine how New York would change and they delivered," said Bloomberg. "Now it's our turn . . . By 2030, virtually every major infrastructure system in our city will be more than a century old and pushed to its limits. It doesn't have to come to that if we act."



The city is distributing a booklet next week to involve New Yorkers in the upcoming debate that makes it clear inaction isn't an option.



"In 25 years, rush hour could last 12 hours every day," proclaims the booklet.



"By 2030, nearly 70 percent of our power plants will be more than 50 years old. By 2030, average temperatures in New York City will have risen almost two degrees. By 2030, nearly 100 neighborhoods will need new playgrounds."



The administration spent the last 11 months preparing for yesterday's speech, creating a new Office of Long Term Planning and Sustainability and consulting scientists, advocates and planners.



Officials are also planning "listening tours" to get input from residents in all five boroughs.



Any doubt that Bloomberg was thinking on a global scale was quickly erased by his lengthy presentation, which included a panel discussion led by newsman Tom Brokaw and video segments that featured actress Bette Midler expounding on the importance of parks.



There were few specifics, but they were ambitious.



Among the 10 goals outlined by the mayor were:



* Ensuring that all New Yorkers live within a 10-minute walk of a park.



* Reducing emissions that contribute to global warming by more than 30 percent.



* Opening 90 percent of waterways for recreation by reducing pollution and preserving natural areas.



* Cleaning 1,700 acres of contaminated land.



* Achieving the cleanest air of any city in the nation.



Even sometime critics praised the mayor's foresight.



"I've been to a fair number of mayoral events and speeches," said Paul White, executive director of Transportation Alternatives, an advocacy group that hasn't been shy in criticizing the administration.



"I have to say this was by far the most exciting. There was a palpable sense something big was happening. There was an electric charge in the room."



White, whose was among those consulted before the speech, said it appeared Bloomberg was trying to nail down "the legacy of all legacies."



A source who asked not to be identified said the administration has already laid the groundwork for its initiatives through rezoning major swaths of the city.



"The changes they made in land use are going to have a profound impact on the city going forward like nothing before," said the source.



"They're creating a tax base to support the city as it grows. Will they get everything they want? No. But they're laying out the framework all future mayors will have to follow."



City officials examined all 1,130 playgrounds to identify underserved neighborhoods. They rated the age and efficiency of all 25 power plants through 2030. And they estimated which subway lines would bear the brunt of added congestion on an average day in 2030.



Bloomberg said that in the next three months, his administration will present specific proposals for reaching each goal, along with regulation, legislation and financing mechanisms.



But as was evident during the panel discussion, it won't be easy to reach consensus on some issues.



When a question was raised about congestion pricing - a proposed policy of charging motorists to use roads in Manhattan, in order to relieve traffic - an unexpected cheer erupted from the audience. It was a clear indication most of the crowd wasn't from Queens, where elected officials have angrily denounced the proposal as a hidden tax.



"We need to be looking at that," argued Diana Fortuna, president of the Citizens Budget Commission. When he heard that, Ed Ott, executive director of the Central Labor Council, suggested another idea - nighttime deliveries to relieve congestion instead of charging motorists to enter central business districts.



"It cannot just become a burden for the working and middle class who come in and out of the city or it's just another form of aggressive taxation," said Ott.



Apparently, Ott didn't realize that the mayor last week had rejected the idea of nighttime deliveries as unworkable.



Robert Yaro, president of the Regional Plan Association, was one of several officials who pointed out that New York isn't operating in a vacuum and faces stiff competition for business and tourism from competitors around the globe.



"We know that Shanghai, London and other great world cities are making plans like these," he said.



"They're doing a great job of building new economies and infrastructures. We've got to do likewise."











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3 意見

  1. axaezak7:58 AM

    記得去年參加在日內瓦的全球都市發展會議, (這是我們某一堂課的必
    修), 其中一個workshop是紐約市的都發局副局長跟水利局長共同主持的,
    他秀了好幾張驚人的紐約市集水渠的系統, 說明從1970年代起紐約市民的
    飲用水的來源就已經包下鄰近三個州的所有山谷的法定集水區, 現在每一
    年服務的供給更是如履薄冰(他PRESENT的重點就是他們如何的利用大量的
    金錢跟高科技來更"仔細"的搜括水源, 還有確保水質可以接受) 當我們問
    他未來的有什麼策略因應時, 似乎可行的方法只由更加擴大集水區, 更多
    的投資管線等等... 這種聽在永續發展講到耳朵流膿的歐洲學生耳裡真的
    是相當的不可思議...尤其是對照緊接在後PRESENT的BASEL十年前開始實
    行至今的一個供水策略:在城市中央種一片森林來"吸高地下水層高度"好"
    自動引流已經被土壤層淨化過的水"進自來水廠, 感覺上BIG APPLE這種
    MEGAPOLIS跟許多歐洲城市的路線真的是有天壤之別...但我想, 紐約今日
    的挑戰, 在中國大量新興的巨型城市也許會遇到更嚴厲的挑戰...雖然我
    們不知道哪一年(他們也沒有清楚的SCENARIO, 除了"2010年廣州將會超越
    台北"這類的... oops!講這樣好像不是太gentille.. 當我歲歲唸吧)

    ReplyDelete
  2. archtemplar9:54 AM

    好久不見啊(很像是廢話喔...)
    昨天才和小藍在一個想不到的網誌上看到你們結婚時的幸福合照

    說到紐約啊...說到底就是打算用錢解決所有的問題
    最近紐約媒體才因為紐約出身的參議員即將掌管國會預算審理委員會而感到興奮不已
    加上明年的總統大選可能又有4個出身紐約的政治人物會出馬角逐
    現在紐約可是一副“邪惡帝國終將再起“的態勢...Orz

    而現在看起來最大的障礙就是infrastructure的限制
    讓紐約無法以“理想中"的速率成長
    (雖然我始終想不通為何他們認定持續成長是唯一的出路?)
    幾年前的black out和去年Queens大停電讓紐約客嚇出一身冷汗
    缺水也早就不是個祕密了...(不過我相信沒有人認真看過公共場所水龍頭旁的政府告示)
    說實話我也很好奇紐約將拿出怎樣的方案來解決這些迫切的危機
    這次的計畫書發表
    跟中央以及民眾喊話才是Bloomberg的目的所在吧...


    據說他老兄也想選總統...

    Happy New Year,


    Rich

    ReplyDelete
  3. CREEK2:38 PM

    版主,你好:
    最初是因為找紐約的規劃資料才因緣際會看到你的這篇文章,讓我瞭解更多
    有關紐約的事,謝謝。
    我想請教的是,關於PlaNYC 2030當中有提到所謂的Brownfield到底中文
    要怎麼稱呼啊?或是有更多的解釋文章可供參考,中文更好,因為作業上的需
    要,煩請告知,謝謝。

    版主回覆:(09/20/2008 06:43:47 PM)


    Brownfield應該可以這麼解釋...

    曾經被有造成污染之虞的產業所使用的土地
    即使在原有生產功能停止之後仍可能殘留對人體造成危害的有毒物質...

    如果硬要我用一個字來翻譯它還真是難倒我了

    ReplyDelete

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